Arsenal 36% likely to miss top 4, Chelsea 87% champions, Leicester relegation 50-50

The title race appears to be almost over, with Chelsea given an 87% chance of finishing top.
Manchester City apparently have a 4/100 shot of overcoming the current eight-point gap to lift the trophy in May, while Arsenal and Spurs are 3% and 2% outsiders respectively.
The really interesting numbers concern the battle for the top four. Chelsea are more than 99% safe, but the rest of the top six’s fate is far from certain.


Arsenal to finish in the top four has been the world’s safest bet for years, but the Premier Predictor calculates that there is a 36% likelihood that they could fall short this year.
However, Liverpool and Manchester United are rated as the most likely misser-outers, with 47% and 49% chances of failure respectively.

At the other end of the table, things look bleak for Crystal Palace, whose probability of getting relegated is a whopping 84%.
Sunderland (61%) and Hull (58%) are also in danger, while there is effectively a flip of a coin between Leicester City staying up and going down.